This year’s spending increase in Ohio is up from the 2.5% relevant retail sales growth experienced during the 2024 holiday season, according to the forecast.
The report presents an analysis of Ohio holiday retail spending and a statewide average sales forecast as well as specific forecasts for nine Ohio Metropolitan Statistical Areas.
Six of Ohio’s nine metropolitan statistical areas will see growth, said Brad Evans, director of research for University of Cincinnati Economics Center.
“The three largest regions in Ohio, Cincinnati, Cleveland and Columbus will again account for more than half (55.5%) of all relevant retail spending in Ohio during the 2025 holiday season, and we are expecting growth in holiday spending in six of the nine metropolitan areas in Ohio,” Evans said.
Dayton is expected to experience the third most growth in relative retail spending at 2.5%, exceeded only by 5% growth in Cleveland and 3% growth in the Cincinnati metropolitan area, Evans said.
Relevant retail spending, for purposes of the forecast, intentionally excludes motor vehicle and parts dealerships, plus gas stations and food services, he said.
Akron and Mansfield are expected to see a decrease in holiday spending, down 0.4% and 4.4%, respectively, while Toledo is projected to remain flat compared to the 2024 holiday season. Lima is expected to see a modest increase of 0.2%.
The forecasted growth rate of 3.1% for the 2025 holiday season is in line with national forecasts, he said.
“Deloitte has projected a forecasted growth rate of 2.9 to 3.4% for the (2025) holiday season, while the National Retail Federation is forecasting holiday spending to increase 3.7 to 4.2% this year compared to last year,” Evans said.
The forecast period covers the months of November, December and January, Evans said. Inflation, employment growth, wage growth, and consumer sentiment were key factors considered as part of the forecast, he said.
Inflation in the Midwest has cooled after sharp increases since 2020. The Consumer Price Index increased 3.1% over the past year, showing slower growth than before, Evans said.
Ohio’s job market is strong, with year-over-year employment up 1.5% in August 2025, outpacing the national rate during the same time period, which was eight tenths of a percent, he said.
The continued growth of E-Commerce also contributes to holiday sales growth.
E-commerce, after comprising a little bit more than 6% of total retail sales for the first quarter of 2014, now accounts for 16.3% of all U.S. retail sales in the second quarter of 2025, Evans said.
Nationally, e-commerce sales are forecasted to grow this holiday season by 7% to 9%, he said.
Gordon Gough, president and CEO of the Ohio Council of Retail Merchants, said the positive forecast “once again reflects Ohio’s continued economic vitality.”
“We’re pleased to see a resurgence in Ohioan’s buying habits as Ohio consumers enjoy the benefits offered by the holiday season,” Gough said in a statement.
Any potential impacts of tariffs are not yet showing up in the model, Evans said.
“Theoretically,” inflation could decrease as tariff deals are completed, according to Ben Brennan, a research associate at the University of Cincinnati’s Economics Center.
“The question is, how are those tariffs going to impact ... expectations of inflation in general,” Brennan said. “If people start to expect higher inflation, the tariffs could lead to persistent inflation, but provided that those tariffs don’t become part of people’s inflation expectations, the inflation increase should just be transitory.”
Evans said Ohio wages are rising but slightly slower than the U.S. average.
“For the second quarter of 2025, wages and salaries grew by 4.8% in Ohio from the previous year, while nationally, wages and salaries were 5.1% higher in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year,” he said.
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